Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
